The discussion was initiated in light of the growing tension between the President and the Parliament after an incident with former Parliament Speaker Omurbek Tekebaev in Warsaw involving narcotics, and the alleged involvement of the younger brother of the President, former deputy chief of the National Security Council, Janybek Bakiev.  

For a discussion of the causes, nature and future of the autumn political tension, the IPP invited the program director of the Development Programs Support Foundation and former adviser to the President, Valentin Bogatyrev, director of the Center for Political and Legal Research, Tamerlan Ibraimov, Director of the Kyrgyzstan office of the Institute for War and Peace Reporting, Kumar Bekbolotov, and others.

In his introductory speech, President of the Institute for Public Policy Muratbek Imanaliev, who chaired the discussion, noted that it was expected that Parliament alone would start the new political season, since political parties and public organizations are not able to set the political agenda for the new political year. Nevertheless, “затравка” turned out to very unusual, which predetermined an unusually high level of political tension. Many MPs began openly demanding the resignation of the tandem of Bakiev and Kulov. The question that remains open is to what extent the incident will impact the further political life in the country.

Valentin Bogatyrev noted that the events of this fall represent a third wave of political tension in Kyrgyzstan after March 24, 2005. The first wave took place in the autumn-winter of last year, when “Parliament decided that it will play the major role if the President does not know what to say.” This wave ended with the resignation of the Speaker of Parliament, Omurbek Tekebaev. The second wave was related to the series of protest meetings in spring 2006 and the attempt to organize a mass public movement to place more effective pressure on the President. Apparently, this wave ended with the dismissal of several top-level allies of President Bakiev and the murder of Ryspek Akmatbaev in May 2006.

The scandal with narcotics has provided opposition MPs with yet another chance to get the President under control, and moreover, to speed up the process of moving towards a Parliamentary republic if the involvement of the President’s brother is proved. However, certain authorities have chosen another scenario, and will apparently find sufficient arguments to prove their innocence, according to analysts. They will likely try to increase the number of loyal MPs in the Parliament, and to restore their reputation among the population. As roundtable participants noted however, in any case the primary victims of the scandal have been Bakiev and Tekebaev, whose reputations suffered much..

Such waves – efforts to intensify political passions – will continue in the future (manifesting themselves in the debates over constitutional reforms, economic outcomes over the year, etc.) Why do such waves continue to happen without bringing any concrete results? Participants of the discussion argued that the major reason is that neither the authorities nor the opposition have ideas for development. Just as it was under Akaev, the “oppositionness” of political opposition is based not on an alternative vision of policies, but on the non-acceptance of the President and his team. Property redistribution favoring the “new people in power” and hurting the vital interests of many opposition politicians and a negative atmosphere in the business environment are also among the important causes of regular waves of political confrontation.

An important implication of the scandal with “matreshka,” as well as of all previous political confrontations, is the growing dissatisfaction of population with politics and politicians. In the long run, this dissatisfaction may play quite a positive role, as the devaluation of political developments should positively influence the economic development. This is especially important today, as Kyrgyzstan, possessing no oil, gas or other resources for development, faces an urgent need to find its proper niche in the world market.

The full transcript of the roundtable is available here