On May 25, 2007 the Institute for Public Police hosted an expert discussion on the situation surrounding the Ganci Antiterrorist Airbase. IPP initiated the round table in light of the burgeoning debate over the conditions for the continued presence of U.S. troops on the base. In particular, on May 23, five parliamentary committees adopted resolutions recommending that parliament denounce the agreement on the airbase. In addition, several political parties made statements regarding the critical of presence of the Ganci Airbase on Kyrgyzstan’s territory.
First of all, the round table participants addressed the question: “To what extent is the presence of the airbase in the interest of Kyrgyzstan?” It was noted that the question is a multilayered one, with humanitarian, financial, security, and geopolitical aspects.
According to the participants, national security should be Kyrgyzstan’s first priority. The operations of the US-led antiterrorist coalition in Afghanistan allowed Kyrgyzstan, as well as of other countries in the region, to solve an important security problem, symptoms of which appeared in Batken in 1999-2000.
Ultimate stabilization of Afghanistan is a large and long-term issue; in this regards the airbase serves the interests of Kyrgyzstan. Experts mentioned a low level of awareness among Kyrgyz politicians and experts, regarding the dynamics of the processes now taking place in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
“At the emotional level, the threat may seem to be small and far away. But an inadequate assessment of the threat is dangerous. The experience of Latin American countries shows what threats may arise from a territory with no authority and a flourishing drug trade,” participants said. They added that, if the situation in Afghanistan gets out of control, the Central Asian region will be the first potential victim of drug terrorism. Russia and China are also in a position to be adversely affected.
At the same time, the round table participants suggested that Kyrgyzstan should appropriately and adequately react to the shortcomings of a military airbase on its territory. The collision of a military plane with a Kyrgyz civilian aircraft, several car accidents, and the recent killing of a Kyrgyz civilian by a U.S. soldier suggests the country’s leadership should take specific action.
One of the options could be negotiation and adoption of a special bill dealing with military bases on Kyrgyz territory. Such a bill should, according to experts, clearly define all conditions for the presence of military airbases and provide a mechanism for arbitration when problems occur.
From a geopolitical perspective, it is important that the Kyrgyz leadership be extremely careful when inferring messages from its more powerful partners. According to experts, vital decisions are made at the geopolitical level without Kyrgyz participation, so misinterpretation of the situation and crossed signals may only serve to complicate the situation further.
According to experts, both China and Russia realize the import role the Ganci Antiterrorist Airbase plays in managing the situation in Afghanistan, thus geopolitical “wrangling” around the Ganci Airbase is just part of a global dialogue between superpowers. Kyrgyzstan should not endeavor to provide consensus among the major powers at the expense of its own interests.
Experts also said that the current round of public discussion over the fate of Ganci Airbase is rather artificially created and should not lead to radical decisions. However, as the next SCO summit will be in Bishkek in August, the issue will inevitably be raised over and over, which means the Kyrgyz leadership should adopt and defend its own stance on the issue.
List of participants
