On June 16, the Institute for Public Policy (IPP) held a meeting of experts, where the current political situation in the country and the forthcoming referendum were discussed. 

The tragic events in Osh and Jalal-Abad regions have made the issue of legitimacy of the Provisional Government, as well as of the referendum on the draft constitution, even more relevant.

Ineffective efforts of the Provisional Government, despite the information available, to prevent the tragedy provided more optimism and determinance to their political opponents and made the idea of cancellation or postponement of the referendum extremely popular. This also raised the question of other forms of legitimization of power in the country.

The main argument of supporters of cancellation of the referendum is the absence of conditions to hold it. The state of emergency in a sizeable part of the country, as well as a profound sense of instability experienced by residents in other regions, contributes to the popularity of that idea. In fact, the entire south of Kyrgyzstan is living under siege and state of emergency. Many people, especially those who lost their loved ones, believe that holding a referendum in such circumstances, immediately after the tragedy (not even the 40 days of mourning have passed) is inappropriate or even blasphemous. The rush to hold the referendum, according to those people, is a manifestation of irresponsibility and immorality of politicians, seeking to legitimize their power.

In addition, the arguments of supporters of postponing the referendum include an idea that the country is not ready for it, especially in the regions, where unrest has taken place. Even if by June 27 the state of emergency is lifted, it is difficult, or even impossible to hold a referendum in accordance with the requirements of law.

The situation is complicated by the fact that some politicians do not agree with the proposed changes in the constitution, and they believe that the best tactic is boycotting the referendum. They suspect that the Provisional Government, interested in holding the referendum and in the positive result of it, is ready to do everything, just to ensure the needed result. Seeing the situation in Osh and Jalal-Abad regions, they believe that in many regions people will not come to vote, and the results of the referendum will be falsified.

On the other hand, many supporters of the referendum fear that if the referendum is not held, the situation in the country will become even more chaotic. Under these conditions, supporters of other forms of legitimization of power, such as appointment of a new prime minister by former members of the parliament, or holding a national Kurultai, are getting especially active.

There is also a view that we should abandon the idea of referendum and immediately set the date for the election of the President and Jogorku Kenesh, according to procedure in the current constitution.

The external actors have a serious impact on the nature and severity of the political struggle here. Russia and neighboring countries of the Kyrgyz Republic do not conceal the fact that they would not want such a significant change in the constitutional structure of the country; the introduction of the parliamentary form of government is not what they wish to see in Kyrgyzstan. And not just because it is regarded as a negative, undesirable political model. They believe that the absence of solid hierarchical administration system in Kyrgyzstan will create conditions for instability and will not allow establishing order and steady state power in the country.

Many domestic political actors do not conceal their acceptance of this opinion and support the external forces. Moreover, there is a form of a competition for this support.

The question of the referendum thus becomes an important counterpoint to the big political game, run not only by domestic political forces, but also by external actors.

Meanwhile, a large part of society recognizes that the Provisional Government cannot ensure stability in the country, not to mention positive developments, and any delay to the legitimization of power is the way into the abyss, chaos and unpredictable consequences.

This is a very important statement, which is a starting point in assessing various political forces and in selecting the most appropriate position.

The best political strategy for the country would be the completion of the political procedures for legitimization of power as soon as possible. The last statement by the Provisional Government says that it intends to announce the date of elections immediately after the referendum. And everyone will support this. Moreover, it is important to do this regardless of the outcome of the referendum.

If the draft constitution fails to receive support, and the current constitution remains in effect, the Government must, within the shortest time possible, announce the date of election of not only parliament, but also of the President of the country, because it's quite possible the people won't support the idea of the President of the transitional period.

Lack of consolidation of the political elite of the country is one of the problems that hinder the rapid conflict resolution. Despite the statements on the need for joint resolute actions by all political forces against the background of the tragic events, there is no real consolidation. The fear that someone from the current leaders may move ahead and become a "national leader" forces political groups to take various measures to discredit each other. All this affects the overall political atmosphere, which has depressive influence on the population of Kyrgyzstan. Inability of political forces to compromise, ultimately, can lead to very serious consequences.

The split among politicians is not due to ideological disagreement; it is purely due to personal relationships between them. The inability to forget about their personal ambitions, even in the face of a common enemy, demonstrates their irresponsibility.

This period is extremely important for all Kyrgyz citizens. If the leaders of all political forces in Kyrgyzstan do not behave as true patriots and do not work as a team, the instability will continue, and Kyrgyzstan will turn into a country under external management.

There is no reason to fear light voter turnout or negative outcome of the referendum. This is not a catastrophe. This is not a catastrophe for the Provisional government either. The country has its constitution, the elections will be held.

A real catastrophe for Kyrgyzstan could be new rallies of different political forces, which may escalate into acts of violence that may threat the safety of citizens of Kyrgyzstan. Responsible politicians need to negotiate, conflict between them can be disastrous for the country.

Experts of the PF "For International Tolerance", a legal clinic "Adilet", Analytical Consortium "Perspective" and the Institute for Public Policy participated in the discussion.